A Modified Logistic Regression Markov Chain Model for Forecasting the College Football Playoff

Selecting the teams for the College Football Playoff for NCAA Division IA men’s football is a controversial process performed by the selection committee. We present a method for forecasting the four team playoff weeks before the selection committee makes this decision. Our method uses a modified logistic regression/Markov chain model for rating the teams, predicting the outcomes of the unplayed games, and simulating the unplayed games in the remainder of the season to forecast the teams that will be selected for the four team playoff.

You can check out the methodology and results at http://bracketology.engr.wisc.edu/